Bitcoin holds the promise of revolutionizing money at a time when the cracks in the foundation of our monetary framework are expanding…

Wall Street consensus has downgraded the probability of a U.S. recession this year and betting markets have reflected this. The odds of a recession in 2025 on Polymarket have declined from around 66% on April 6 to 33% today. Dr. Hunt has a contrarian view and believes that there is more than a 50% chance of recession…

The current investment environment, with its elevated levels of volatility and uncertainty, is motivating investors to think about whether or not their investment strategy is right for the market conditions.

We still believe that the most likely outcome for private credit is that it will survive and possibly even thrive, but we believe the tail risks are increasing, so we are choosing to step aside.

The first battle in the US-China trade war is over and China won.

The V-shaped recovery that has followed the sell-off in early April suggests the stock market is not pricing-in the higher likelihood of economic recession and investors are betting that the ever present monetary or fiscal stimulus backstop will be there.

Two weeks ago, I had a memorable call with client named Richard, a technology engineer from New Jersey who designs thermal cooling systems for telecom equipment…

Behind the façade, which has fooled many economists, journalists and politicians, China’s economy is driven by a fragile communist system full of contradictions and untold suffering.

The new tariffs have ignited a trade war causing stock and bond markets to, as one client observed, “bounce around like a bobcat in a bag of bullfrogs.” Meanwhile, politicians and the media have been keen to weigh-in, increasing investor uncertainty. 

Free trade benefits everyone. Tariffs distort price signals, leading to a misallocation of resources as capital and labor are directed towards artificially protected, less efficient industries.

There are growing indications that consumer retail is slowing. Recent reports highlight weaker-than-expected retail sales, particularly declines observed in January, suggesting a pullback in consumer spending.

Today, there are clear parallels between the dot-com bubble and the AI revolution. Nvidia came into 2025 priced at 30 times sales revenue, which requires virtually unheard of long term growth to justify its current price.

In part one of this series, I introduced the case that we are in the early stages of a “new world order,” and in part two, I focused on two of the five “big forces” explained by Ray Dalio. This week, I will discuss the other three big forces.

This week I want to discuss in more detail how we are thinking about the changing world order.  For an introduction, please read Part 1 here.

A number of analysts we follow have presented a compelling case that we are in the early stages of a “new world order,” that will include major societal, economic and geopolitical changes that will have major impacts on our everyday lives and our investments.

There is bipartisan recognition that the $36.5 trillion federal deficit represents an impending crisis and the Trump Administration has devised a plan to address it.

According to the Buffett Indicator, stocks are extremely expensive today. What does it mean for investors?