For decades, traditional 60/40 stock/bond portfolios have provided built-in diversification. But today, stock index returns dominated by extreme tech concentration and soaring government debt have left traditional buy-and-hold strategies exposed to new risks. Navigating this environment requires moving beyond simple two-asset structures toward broader asset classes and active risk management.

SpaceX skipped the line to join the Nasdaq 100, but with a nearly 50% drop from its peak and an unprecedented tide of insider shares unlocking, gravity is catching up. Here is why the SpaceX sell-off might just be the opening act of an AI bubble unwinding.

The AI trade is facing a brutal reality check. As semiconductors are selling-off, investors are confronting a harsh reality: AI development and deployment costs are outweighing its actual financial returns. In today’s letter I highlight the three biggest problems facing the AI industry.

We are entering the second half of the year in one of the most confusing, risky, and opportunity-filled environments in financial history. On the surface, the tech-driven cap-ex boom has pushed the U.S. stock market to all-time highs. But beneath the surface, risks abound. In my Q3 Investment Outlook, I break down the risks and the opportunities and disucss how we are investing for our clients.

As a crushing 4.2% inflation rate continues to erode the purchasing power of everyday Americans, a dramatic guard-changing at the Federal Reserve offers a glimmer of economic relief. Under the newly appointed Chairman Kevin Warsh, the central bank appears ready to finally abandon years of reckless monetary expansion and wage a definitive war for price stability.

An unprecedented supply-and-demand shock is about to hit Wall Street. Between a historic $75 billion SpaceX offering and a massive wave of mega-capital raises from tech giants, institutional funds are being forced to liquidate existing positions just to get a seat at the table.

Investment advisor Brian Schreiner breaks down the staggering economic and human costs of the U.S.-Iran war. Despite calls from political warhawks to resume combat operations, Iran currently has the upper hand. Oil prices have been artificially suppressed until now, but executives from Chevron and ExxonMobil say prices are poised for a surge.

The AI Cap-Ex boom is a money furnace. Investors need to look past the hype and dive into the realities of the AI industry. Under the surface, smaller, specialized and more efficient AI models are emerging to challenge the frontier LLM giants.

The hyperscalers are promising an AI empire, but data center construction is a mirage of half-truths, fudged numbers and physical delays. The largest industrial over-build in American history is hitting a wall. The tech giants are burning cash at an unprecedented rate while hiding the fact that their actual construction pipelines are drowning in delays.

The current AI market is characterized by an unsustainable over-investment bubble driven by hype and mainstream media complicity. While tech giants focus on their expensive and inefficient "frontier models," a growing group of experts and skeptics are explaining why these massive systems fail to deliver real-world value. The AI bubble will burst, giving way to a "Distributed AGI" future where smaller, specialized, and cost-effective AI tools deliver real utility to specific industries.

Ray Dalio says, “We’re certainly in a stagflationary period.” Is Dalio’s understanding of current economic conditions accurate? If so, what does that mean for your investments? Warren Buffet says we’ve never had more investors in a gambling mood than now. The Fed left interest unchanged last week, but Powell said the quiet part out loud.

Passive buy-and-hold investing ignores fundamental valuations and fails to protect investors from catastrophic market cycles. Traditional indexing lacks true diversification and relies on several dangerous myths.

Investors are in a gambling mood after rushing in to buy the dip at high prices despite an extreme set of risks. Most acutely, the U.S.-Iran conflict is at a critical juncture. If a diplomatic settlement is not reached by midnight on Tuesday, the conflict risks a catastrophic escalation.

For over a decade, U.S. mega-cap tech stocks have dominated market leadership, but the cycle is undeniably changing. The opportunity we see is in more global, capital-intensive industries. Earnings growth is moving to companies with tangible assets and pricing power. The case for this "Great Rotation" ultimately comes down to valuations. Foreign stocks offer much more attractive valuations and are likely to outperform U.S. large cap stocks over the coming years.

The era of easy money, which drove asset prices to the most extreme levels in history, has come to an end and the tide of liquidity is going out. The global debt super cycle is unwinding. Extreme debt levels and inflationary pressures have tied the hands of governments and central banks, reducing available monetary and fiscal policies and limiting their effects. In this stagflationary environment, asset preservation should be your primary objective. Now is not the time to be chasing returns.

The initial market optimism surrounding the war with Iran collided with a number of harsh realities last week. Stocks were down for the fifth week in a row—the longest streak since 2022. The S&P 500 Index reached a six-month low. Bonds edged lower marking the second week in a row that both stock and bonds were down together. Gold and commodities were up and bitcoin was down.

Financial markets are on edge as the U.S./Iran war enters its fourth week and critical new phase. The war with Iran is overshadowing all other investment considerations. 

Slowing economic growth, elevated inflation and rising oil prices are making stagflation a real threat in the U.S.

As the war in the Middle East intensifies, market volatility has increased and oil prices surged past $100. The Persian Gulf is now nearly impassable and a growing list of countries are slowing oil production as storage facilities reach capacity. Officials in Bahrain said Iran attacked one of their water desalination plants, raising concers for millions of innocent civilans.

The new war in the Middle East will have significant economic impacts, but we must acknowledge—and elevate to the highest priority—the devastation being felt by innocent families. Economically, Americans will face higher prices and higher interest rates driven by a supply shock in the oil market…