When the Music Stops
Last week’s shot across the bow was a wake-up call for investors. AI firms are burning cash at an alarming rate in a heavily leveraged arms race that threatens the broader stock market. As recent tech sell-offs signal cracks in this massive gamble, traditional buy-and-hold investors are left dangerously exposed to the fallout.
Unmasking Your AI Exposure
Now is a good time to look under the hood of your portfolio, understand your AI exposure across all asset classes—not just stocks—and consider positioning your assets in more defensive positions before the next shockwave hits.
The Bizarre Ideology of Silicon Valley
Generative AI is fueling an unprecedented financial bubble in Silicon Valley, but the precarious "house of cards" economics are only half the story. Beneath the staggering corporate losses and desperate push for hypergrowth lies a hidden, existential risk that almost no one is talking about: a bizarre, fringe ideology known as Transhumanism that is quietly driving the tech giants shaping the future of humanity.
Q4 Investment Outlook: The Gravity of Market History
Navigating today’s investment environment—an atmosphere heavy with gravity and the promise of super-human intelligence from AI—requires an investment discipline rooted in patience, selectivity, and capital preservation.
Hidden Risks Lurking in Traditional Bond Portfolios
Millions of investors rely on popular, passively managed bond ETFs for safety, but their returns have been dismal. Furthermore, many investors are unaware that these cap-weighted funds have become dangerously over-allocated to ballooning U.S. government debt.
Financial Advice from AI is Mostly Wrong
While millions of consumers are turning to AI chatbots for financial guidance, recent research reveals these popular tools provide incorrect answers 57% of the time. With error rates skyrocketing to 88% on complex calculations, relying on this confidently delivered but heavily flawed advice could lead to serious financial missteps.
New Red Flag for Stocks: AI Debt
The stock market remains captivated by AI's growth story, but the bond market is flashing a major warning sign: Costs to insure AI bonds are rising rapidy and uncertainty could spread into broader asset markets.
The Fallacy of Time Diversification
The risk of catastrophic loss does not decrease with time; it increases.
The Enron Echo: Data Centers as Subprime Debt
The trillion-dollar AI infrastructure time bomb could explode soon. Experienced investors Paul Kedrosky and Dick Costolo unpack how Big Tech's insatiable spending on data centers is quietly mirroring the 2008 mortgage crisis and Enron's most notorious accounting tricks.
What $40 Trillion in Federal Debt Means for Investors
With the U.S. national debt crossing a historic $40 trillion, surging government borrowing is reshaping the investment landscape.
My Favorite Analyst is a Green Cartoon Chicken
One of the sharpest macro analysts on the planet hides behind a green cartoon chicken avatar—and I gladly pay him $400 a year. His name is Doomberg, and he’s worth paying attention to.
The New Frontline: Natural Resources
As Western nations initiate the largest military buildup since the Cold War, the true bottleneck in global rearmament isn't manufacturing capacity—it’s raw materials. With China holding near-monopoly control over critical inputs like gallium, samarium, and tungsten, defense procurement is shifting from cost-efficiency to national security. While market attention remains fixed on prime defense contractors, the higher-leverage opportunity lies upstream in the non-Chinese miners, refiners, and recyclers of strategic metals that dictate the pace of modern defense hardware.
How Modern Markets Broke the 60/40 Portfolio
For decades, traditional 60/40 stock/bond portfolios have provided built-in diversification. But today, stock index returns dominated by extreme tech concentration and soaring government debt have left traditional buy-and-hold strategies exposed to new risks. Navigating this environment requires moving beyond simple two-asset structures toward broader asset classes and active risk management.
SpaceX Bagholders Meet Gravity
SpaceX skipped the line to join the Nasdaq 100, but with a nearly 50% drop from its peak and an unprecedented tide of insider shares unlocking, gravity is catching up. Here is why the SpaceX sell-off might just be the opening act of an AI bubble unwinding.
Why the AI Trade is Over
The AI trade is facing a brutal reality check. As semiconductors are selling-off, investors are confronting a harsh reality: AI development and deployment costs are outweighing its actual financial returns. In today’s letter I highlight the three biggest problems facing the AI industry.
3Q Investment Outlook: Navigating the Late-Stage Cycle
We are entering the second half of the year in one of the most confusing, risky, and opportunity-filled environments in financial history. On the surface, the tech-driven cap-ex boom has pushed the U.S. stock market to all-time highs. But beneath the surface, risks abound. In my Q3 Investment Outlook, I break down the risks and the opportunities and disucss how we are investing for our clients.
Hope & Change at the Fed
As a crushing 4.2% inflation rate continues to erode the purchasing power of everyday Americans, a dramatic guard-changing at the Federal Reserve offers a glimmer of economic relief. Under the newly appointed Chairman Kevin Warsh, the central bank appears ready to finally abandon years of reckless monetary expansion and wage a definitive war for price stability.
SpaceX Could Change the Market
An unprecedented supply-and-demand shock is about to hit Wall Street. Between a historic $75 billion SpaceX offering and a massive wave of mega-capital raises from tech giants, institutional funds are being forced to liquidate existing positions just to get a seat at the table.
Delusional Warhawks and Rising Oil Prices
Investment advisor Brian Schreiner breaks down the staggering economic and human costs of the U.S.-Iran war. Despite calls from political warhawks to resume combat operations, Iran currently has the upper hand. Oil prices have been artificially suppressed until now, but executives from Chevron and ExxonMobil say prices are poised for a surge.
AI Snake Oil-Part 3: The Rise of Open-Source Models
The AI Cap-Ex boom is a money furnace. Investors need to look past the hype and dive into the realities of the AI industry. Under the surface, smaller, specialized and more efficient AI models are emerging to challenge the frontier LLM giants.