Financial markets are on edge as the U.S./Iran war enters its fourth week and critical new phase. The war with Iran is overshadowing all other investment considerations. 

Slowing economic growth, elevated inflation and rising oil prices are making stagflation a real threat in the U.S.

As the war in the Middle East intensifies, market volatility has increased and oil prices surged past $100. The Persian Gulf is now nearly impassable and a growing list of countries are slowing oil production as storage facilities reach capacity. Officials in Bahrain said Iran attacked one of their water desalination plants, raising concers for millions of innocent civilans.

The new war in the Middle East will have significant economic impacts, but we must acknowledge—and elevate to the highest priority—the devastation being felt by innocent families. Economically, Americans will face higher prices and higher interest rates driven by a supply shock in the oil market…

In an interview with Jesse Day of Commodity Culture, former U.S. Army Colonel Douglas Macgregor said that a U.S. military strike on Iran is now certain. He describes the conflict as "Israel’s war," claiming that the Trump administration has essentially subordinated U.S. defense policy to Israeli command…

China is quickly catching up to the U.S. in the AI arms race, developing highly advanced models powered by homegrown chips and abundant low-cost energy. China’s rapid advancement is threatening U.S. AI dominance…

On January 30th the Department of Justice finally got around to releasing over three million pages of records related to their Jeffrey Epstein investigations. Rest assured, the DOJ has formally announced that while Epstein’s personal crimes were vast, there was no sex trafficking ring serving other powerful men…

Market volatility returned to the spotlight last week. On Thursday, the CBOE Volatility Index—a key gauge of anticipated market swings known as the “VIX”—reached 23.1, its highest level since late November, suggesting investors may be shifting to a risk-off mood…

President Trump has announced his nominee to replace Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve. Kevin Warsh is an excellent choice who should bring much-needed regime change to the Fed.

Headlines have been relentless since the start of the new year. Between a ramp-up in geopolitical tensions, fresh threats to Fed independence, and a string of policy proposals aimed at affordability, the market has had lot to digest. Despite the noise, stocks have barely flinched, maintaining a sense of calm.

2026 Investment Outlook

Every Wall Street analyst is predicting another positive year. Those of us on bubble watch know that extreme bullishness is a contrarian indicator, but the pin has been elusive. Why?

This week I want to review some timeless concepts that are especially important in light of today’s market euphoria.

AI is groundbreaking technology. It’s a technological advancement that could be bigger than the internet itself. Like the dot-com bubble, the irrational exuberance in AI is not in the idea or the innovation; it’s in the price and investor behavior.

With consumer confidence and business activity declining, you’d expect investor confidence and market analysts to be in a cautious mood, but that is not the case. This is just one of many interesting contradictions and interesting dynamics at play as we move into 2026.

Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024, investors have been haunted by a persistent narrative: “Bitcoin is just a tech stock on steroids.”

So while Bitcoin and the stock market are influenced by some of the same market forces, they are by no means tethered to one another.

The S&P 500 closed the week within 1% of its record high as the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (PCE) rose 0.3% on a monthly basis, which lifted annual inflation from 2.7% to 2.8% in September. The Federal Reserve will announce its final interest rate decision of 2025 on Wednesday as new concerns about the labor market headwinds, tariff effects and sticky inflation are taking their toll on consumers.

The prevailing Western narrative on China is fundamentally flawed. Since 2018, China has executed a massive, strategic reallocation of capital—moving away from debt-fueled property expansion and into high-tech industrial self-sufficiency.

Uncertainty about the impact of potentially over-investment in AI infrastructure lies at the heart of the AI bubble concerns and it’s starting to shake investor confidence. The sell-off in bitcoin intensified last week as the price of the most widely traded cryptocurrency sank to the lowest level in seven months.

Fiscal dominance is a conflict where the government's need to finance its spending and manage its large debt becomes so critical that it prevents the central bank from doing its primary job of controlling inflation.

Last week’s market weakness coincides with growing economic concerns, as corporate bankruptcies rise, October layoffs hit a 20-year high, and consumer sentiment falls. Meanwhile, lawmakers appear to be advancing a deal that could soon end the record-long government shutdown