Brian Schreiner Brian Schreiner

When the Music Stops

Last week’s shot across the bow was a wake-up call for investors. AI firms are burning cash at an alarming rate in a heavily leveraged arms race that threatens the broader stock market. As recent tech sell-offs signal cracks in this massive gamble, traditional buy-and-hold investors are left dangerously exposed to the fallout.

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Brian Schreiner Brian Schreiner

Unmasking Your AI Exposure

Now is a good time to look under the hood of your portfolio, understand your AI exposure across all asset classes—not just stocks—and consider positioning your assets in more defensive positions before the next shockwave hits.

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Brian Schreiner Brian Schreiner

The Bizarre Ideology of Silicon Valley

Generative AI is fueling an unprecedented financial bubble in Silicon Valley, but the precarious "house of cards" economics are only half the story. Beneath the staggering corporate losses and desperate push for hypergrowth lies a hidden, existential risk that almost no one is talking about: a bizarre, fringe ideology known as Transhumanism that is quietly driving the tech giants shaping the future of humanity.

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Brian Schreiner Brian Schreiner

Q4 Investment Outlook: The Gravity of Market History

Navigating today’s investment environment—an atmosphere heavy with gravity and the promise of super-human intelligence from AI—requires an investment discipline rooted in patience, selectivity, and capital preservation.

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Brian Schreiner Brian Schreiner

Hidden Risks Lurking in Traditional Bond Portfolios

Millions of investors rely on popular, passively managed bond ETFs for safety, but their returns have been dismal. Furthermore, many investors are unaware that these cap-weighted funds have become dangerously over-allocated to ballooning U.S. government debt.

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Brian Schreiner Brian Schreiner

Financial Advice from AI is Mostly Wrong

While millions of consumers are turning to AI chatbots for financial guidance, recent research reveals these popular tools provide incorrect answers 57% of the time. With error rates skyrocketing to 88% on complex calculations, relying on this confidently delivered but heavily flawed advice could lead to serious financial missteps.

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Brian Schreiner Brian Schreiner

New Red Flag for Stocks: AI Debt

The stock market remains captivated by AI's growth story, but the bond market is flashing a major warning sign: Costs to insure AI bonds are rising rapidy and uncertainty could spread into broader asset markets.

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Brian Schreiner Brian Schreiner

The Enron Echo: Data Centers as Subprime Debt

The trillion-dollar AI infrastructure time bomb could explode soon. Experienced investors Paul Kedrosky and Dick Costolo unpack how Big Tech's insatiable spending on data centers is quietly mirroring the 2008 mortgage crisis and Enron's most notorious accounting tricks.

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Brian Schreiner Brian Schreiner

My Favorite Analyst is a Green Cartoon Chicken

One of the sharpest macro analysts on the planet hides behind a green cartoon chicken avatar—and I gladly pay him $400 a year. His name is Doomberg, and he’s worth paying attention to.

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Brian Schreiner Brian Schreiner

The New Frontline: Natural Resources

As Western nations initiate the largest military buildup since the Cold War, the true bottleneck in global rearmament isn't manufacturing capacity—it’s raw materials. With China holding near-monopoly control over critical inputs like gallium, samarium, and tungsten, defense procurement is shifting from cost-efficiency to national security. While market attention remains fixed on prime defense contractors, the higher-leverage opportunity lies upstream in the non-Chinese miners, refiners, and recyclers of strategic metals that dictate the pace of modern defense hardware.

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Brian Schreiner Brian Schreiner

How Modern Markets Broke the 60/40 Portfolio

For decades, traditional 60/40 stock/bond portfolios have provided built-in diversification. But today, stock index returns dominated by extreme tech concentration and soaring government debt have left traditional buy-and-hold strategies exposed to new risks. Navigating this environment requires moving beyond simple two-asset structures toward broader asset classes and active risk management.

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Brian Schreiner Brian Schreiner

SpaceX Bagholders Meet Gravity

SpaceX skipped the line to join the Nasdaq 100, but with a nearly 50% drop from its peak and an unprecedented tide of insider shares unlocking, gravity is catching up. Here is why the SpaceX sell-off might just be the opening act of an AI bubble unwinding.

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Brian Schreiner Brian Schreiner

Why the AI Trade is Over

The AI trade is facing a brutal reality check. As semiconductors are selling-off, investors are confronting a harsh reality: AI development and deployment costs are outweighing its actual financial returns. In today’s letter I highlight the three biggest problems facing the AI industry.

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Brian Schreiner Brian Schreiner

3Q Investment Outlook: Navigating the Late-Stage Cycle

We are entering the second half of the year in one of the most confusing, risky, and opportunity-filled environments in financial history. On the surface, the tech-driven cap-ex boom has pushed the U.S. stock market to all-time highs. But beneath the surface, risks abound. In my Q3 Investment Outlook, I break down the risks and the opportunities and disucss how we are investing for our clients.

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Brian Schreiner Brian Schreiner

Hope & Change at the Fed

As a crushing 4.2% inflation rate continues to erode the purchasing power of everyday Americans, a dramatic guard-changing at the Federal Reserve offers a glimmer of economic relief. Under the newly appointed Chairman Kevin Warsh, the central bank appears ready to finally abandon years of reckless monetary expansion and wage a definitive war for price stability.

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Brian Schreiner Brian Schreiner

SpaceX Could Change the Market

An unprecedented supply-and-demand shock is about to hit Wall Street. Between a historic $75 billion SpaceX offering and a massive wave of mega-capital raises from tech giants, institutional funds are being forced to liquidate existing positions just to get a seat at the table.

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Brian Schreiner Brian Schreiner

Delusional Warhawks and Rising Oil Prices

Investment advisor Brian Schreiner breaks down the staggering economic and human costs of the U.S.-Iran war. Despite calls from political warhawks to resume combat operations, Iran currently has the upper hand. Oil prices have been artificially suppressed until now, but executives from Chevron and ExxonMobil say prices are poised for a surge.

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Brian Schreiner Brian Schreiner

AI Snake Oil-Part 3: The Rise of Open-Source Models

The AI Cap-Ex boom is a money furnace. Investors need to look past the hype and dive into the realities of the AI industry. Under the surface, smaller, specialized and more efficient AI models are emerging to challenge the frontier LLM giants.

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